Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, recently made a bold prediction regarding the immediate future of Bitcoin’s price. He suggested that the price of Bitcoin could potentially drop below $50k in the coming weekend. Hayes did not provide detailed reasons for his forecast, but his statement coincided with the upcoming release of significant US economic indicators.
The US jobs data has been a crucial factor for analysts in recent times. Analysts from The Kobeissi Letter noted the growing influence of unemployment data on Federal Reserve policies. Prediction markets are now pricing in multiple rate cuts for 2024, with the upcoming jobs report playing a vital role in determining the extent of interest rate cuts by the Fed.
Labor Market Data
Recent data on job openings in the US has shown a significant decline, with numbers dropping to the lowest level since January 2021. The ratio of job vacancies to unemployed workers has also decreased, highlighting the challenges in the labor market. This weakening job data has contributed to negative sentiment in the Bitcoin market.
Technical Analysis
Alongside Hayes’ prediction, renowned trader Peter Brandt also shared his technical analysis of Bitcoin’s market. He identified an “inverted expanding triangle or a megaphone” pattern in Bitcoin’s weekly chart, suggesting a potential price test around $46,000. Brandt emphasized the dominance of selling pressure over buying interest in the current market conditions.
The combination of deteriorating job data, revised economic forecasts, and technical analysis pointing towards a bearish outlook has created a negative sentiment around the Bitcoin market. Both Hayes and Brandt’s predictions highlight the challenges that Bitcoin may face in the near future. As the market continues to evolve, it will be crucial to monitor key economic indicators and technical patterns to gain a better understanding of Bitcoin’s price movements.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at $55,767.
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