The recent analysis by Benjamin Cowen on the downtrend observed in the Ethereum/Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) pair has raised concerns within the crypto community. The insights provided by Cowen shed light on the complex relationship between Ethereum and Bitcoin pricing and the potential for further downside risk. In this article, we will delve into Cowen’s analysis and examine the key points he has raised regarding the current state of the ETH/BTC pair.
According to Cowen, the ETH/BTC pair is currently experiencing a downtrend, with the last 2 declines resulting in a significant drop of around 70% in ETHUSD value. This has led Cowen to caution the crypto community about the possibility of further downside movement, despite the anticipation of an Altcoin season for the past 2.5 years.
Cowen has also highlighted that the ETH/BTC pair is currently being rejected by the bull market support band, a trend he had predicted earlier due to a price pump. He expects the pair to continue facing resistance within the range of $0.053-$0.054, based on weekly closes. Furthermore, Cowen has drawn parallels between the current price pump and the previous cycle of rate cuts before a summer capitulation, indicating a potential downward trend in the near future.
Following the launch of Bitcoin Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), Cowen noted a sharp rally in the ETH/BTC pair, similar to the trend observed during the previous bull cycle. However, he emphasized the existence of an undeniable macro downtrend since November 2021, especially after the merger of the ETH/BTC pair. Despite the market not experiencing a sudden decline, investors have opted to hold onto ETH instead of BTC due to multiple lower highs, creating a false impression of stability.
Cowen’s prediction prior to the Bitcoin Halving suggests that the bull market support band will continue to reject ETH/BTC, potentially leading to a rebound similar to the one witnessed after the Halving. Regardless of the outcome, Cowen is confident that the pair will reach a range of $0.03-$0.04 by summer.
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted a noticeable shift in performance between Ethereum and Bitcoin in the current cycle. The firm reports a growing discrepancy in performance, particularly in relation to capital rotation trends. The weaker performance of Ethereum, as compared to Bitcoin, is attributed to a general trend of weaker capital rotation, especially when compared to previous cycles and all-time highs.
Benjamin Cowen’s analysis of the recent ETH/BTC downtrend offers valuable insights into the dynamics of the crypto market. His cautionary approach and predictions regarding the future movement of the ETH/BTC pair provide investors with valuable information to consider in their decision-making process. As the crypto market continues to evolve, it is essential for investors to stay informed and conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.
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