The recent performance of Ethereum in terms of price action has left many traders disappointed, as it has not met the bullish expectations that were set following the launch of Spot Ethereum ETFs. The current bearish trend has seen the price of Ethereum drop by 23% over a 30-day period, sparking concerns among investors. However, a closer look at the technical analysis reveals that this downturn may not be as unexpected as it seems.
Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has pointed out that Ethereum’s price action in 2024 closely mirrors its performance in 2016 when viewed on the monthly candlestick chart. This pattern of repetition has been consistent for eight months in a row, dating back to January. In 2016, Ethereum experienced a massive rally of 19,000%, reaching $1,590 for the first time. If history repeats itself, investors can expect a green monthly close for Ethereum in September followed by three consecutive bearish months from October to December.
As of now, Ethereum is trading at $2,445, showing a decline of 10.85% over the past seven days and 23% over the past 30 days. If the current trend continues to mimic the 2016 pattern, Ethereum’s bearish momentum might persist for the remainder of the year. However, there is still a glimmer of hope for Ethereum bulls, as the cryptocurrency is currently hovering around a critical support level at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, just above $2,400. A significant bounce from this level could signal the start of an upward trend, leading to a close above its monthly open by the end of September.
Despite the current challenges, there is optimism that Ethereum could eventually go on a notable price rally above its current all-time high if the price action repetition continues after December 2024. This could potentially push Ethereum into a profitable territory, providing relief to fervent Ethereum bulls who have been eagerly anticipating a positive price movement. An ETH surge above $3,000, reaching $4,000, and eventually $5,000 is still a possibility in the foreseeable future.
While the recent price action of Ethereum may have fallen short of expectations, there are indications that history may repeat itself, leading to a potential rally in the coming months. Investors and traders should keep a close eye on the critical support level and monitor the price action closely to capitalize on any upward trends. Ultimately, the future of Ethereum remains uncertain, but there is hope for a turnaround based on historical patterns and technical analysis.
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