The recent decline in Bitcoin’s price has resulted in a gloomy outlook for the spot Bitcoin ETF market. Data from BitMEX Research shows that there has been a negative netflow in these BTC ETFs for the past four trading sessions. This negative trend has been driven by significant outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC and record low inflows for other market leaders like BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC.
Amidst this downturn, Ki Young Ju, a well-known analyst and CEO at Cryptoquant, has expressed optimism about a possible resurgence in the spot Bitcoin ETF market. According to Ju, historical netflow trends indicate that demand for Bitcoin ETFs tends to increase when the cryptocurrency reaches certain support levels. In particular, new BTC whales, especially ETF buyers, have been found to have a $56,000 on-chain cost basis, suggesting that significant holders of Bitcoin purchased at an average price of $56,000. This leads Ju to believe that the spot Bitcoin ETF market could see substantial inflows if BTC reaches this specified price level.
Despite Bitcoin’s price fluctuations between $62,000 and $68,000 in recent days, Ju remains confident in the possibility of a further descent. Price corrections typically see a maximum decline of around 30%, and based on BTC’s recent high of $73,750, the analyst predicts that the asset price could still drop as low as $51,000. At present, Bitcoin is trading at $64,065.74, reflecting a 3.73% decline in the last 24 hours and a 7.17% decrease over the past week. The daily trading volume for the cryptocurrency has also decreased by 3.53% to $39.62 billion.
Considering the historical patterns of the bull cycle, there is a chance that Bitcoin may have already reached its price peak leading up to the halving event in April. If this is the case, it is unlikely that Bitcoin will return to previous high price levels anytime soon and may even experience further declines in the near future.
While the spot Bitcoin ETF market may currently be experiencing a downturn, there is potential for a resurgence in demand if Bitcoin’s price approaches critical support levels. New whales, particularly ETF buyers with a $56,000 on-chain cost basis, could drive significant inflows into the market. However, the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s price movements and the overall market conditions suggest that investors should proceed with caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. The future of Bitcoin spot ETFs remains uncertain, but with careful analysis and strategic planning, investors can navigate these challenging times with confidence.
Leave a Reply